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Global Warming And New England: Progress, Opportunities and Challenges After Two Years of the Regional Climate Change Action Plan 11/3/2003 Climate_Change.pdf

Executive Summary

As the new home of RIPIRG's environmental work, Environment Rhode Island can be contacted regarding this report.

New England has a long way to go to meet regional goals for reducing emissions of global warming gases set forth in a landmark agreement two years ago.

Global warming gases—such as the carbon dioxide that is released to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels—blanket the Earth, trapping the sun’s heat, causing global temperatures to rise, and threatening New England’s future environmental and economic stability.

By implementing proven techniques to increase the energy efficiency of our homes, cars and workplaces, and by taking advantage of clean, renewable sources of energy such as solar and wind power, New England could reduce its emissions of global warming gases while at the same time reducing its dependence on imported fossil fuels. The 2001 regional Climate Change Action Plan—signed by the governors of the six New England states and the premiers of the eastern Canadian provinces—put the region on course to this cleaner future. In the two years since the agreement was adopted, several New England states have begun to plan for how they will meet the plan’s overall emission reduction goals. Meanwhile, regional leaders have endorsed a series of "action items" that set goals for the reduction of global warming emissions from specific sectors of the economy.

An analysis of those commitments shows that, despite many promising initiatives, regional and state leaders have a great deal more work to do to meet the short-, medium-, and long-term goals of the Climate Change Action Plan.

Global warming emissions in New England have risen sharply over the last decade and will likely continue to rise without concerted action—threatening serious harm to New England’s health and economy.
• Emissions of carbon dioxide (the leading cause of global warming) from energy use in New England increased by about 13 percent between 1990 and 2000, according to energy consumption data collected by the federal government.

• Future increases in energy use projected by the U.S. Department of Energy could lead to a further 13 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions by 2010 and a 24 percent increase over 2000 levels by 2020 if no additional steps are taken to reduce emissions.

• Scientists believe that, at current rates of growth in global warming emissions, New England could experience severe impacts from global warming in the foreseeable future. Average temperatures in New England have already increased by 0.7° F over the last century, and further increases of 6° F to 10° F are possible over the next century. Such an increase could cause the annual average temperature in Boston a century from now to approach that of Atlanta, Georgia today – causing sea-level rise, shifts in species distribution and public health threats while jeopardizing such cornerstones of the New England economy as maple syrup production, fall foliage-related tourism and skiing.

Regional commitments made to date, if implemented, would significantly reduce global warming emissions in New England, but not to the extent called for by the regional Climate Change Action Plan.
• The regional Climate Change Action Plan calls for reducing global warming emissions in New England to 1990 levels by 2010 and to 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. In the long run, the plan commits to reducing emissions by the 75 to 85 percent necessary to eliminate any dangerous threat to the climate. Achieving the short-term goal will require approximately a 22 percent reduction in emissions from projected levels by 2010, while meeting the medium-term goal will require a 36 percent reduction from projected levels by 2020.

• Promised reductions in emissions from the transportation, electricity generation and public sectors, and from increased conservation efforts, would reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the region by six percent below projected levels by 2010 and 16 percent below projected levels by 2020.

• In other words, the regional commitments made to date will bring the region less than one-third of the way to achieving its short-term global warming emission reduction goals and less than half the way to achieving its medium-term goals. The commitments also will not position New England to make the long-term emission reductions scientists believe will be needed to forestall global warming.

The New England states and the region as a whole have begun to lay the groundwork for further reductions in emissions, but more work remains to be done.
• Of the six New England states, only Rhode Island has thus far issued a state climate change action plan that estimates needed emission reductions, recommends policy options to achieve the state’s goals, and sets forth a process for working toward implementation of those policies. Connecticut and Massachusetts are currently drafting state plans to reduce global warming emissions and Maine has pledged to issue a plan within the next year. New Hampshire and Vermont currently possess plans that are either out-of-date or insufficiently detailed to provide much guidance in achieving the goals.

• Efforts to update global warming emission inventories (which track total emissions in the region) and create emission registries (which enable companies and other entities to establish baseline emission levels, allowing for possible crediting under future emission-reduction programs) are proceeding, but the process must continue to give states the tools they need to bring about significant short-term reductions in global warming emissions.

The adoption of strong guiding principles and strong policies for the reduction of global warming emissions could bring the goals of the Climate Change Action Plan within reach.
• Studies by the Tellus Institute and Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) have both shown that the short-term goal of the Action Plan is achievable with the right mix of public policies. More than 100 organizations throughout New England have endorsed a set of 10 action principles to reduce global warming emissions in the region (see page 32).

Among the key principles are:

• Each sector of the economy should be responsible for at least its proportionate share of global warming emission reductions. This means that state and regional leaders should impose concrete goals for reducing emissions from all sectors, including the transportation sector—the largest source of global warming emissions in the region. States should consider policies such as zero-emission vehicle programs, financial incentives for the purchase of more energy-efficient vehicles, curtailing suburban "sprawl," and expanding public transit and other transportation alternatives, which can lead to significant reductions in transportation-sector emissions.

• Regional leaders should commit to significant reductions in emissions from the electricity generating sector. The electricity sector is the region’s second-largest source of global warming emissions. Maine, Massachusetts and New Hampshire have adopted policies to limit carbon dioxide emissions from older power plants, while Connecticut and Massachusetts require the generation of increasing amounts of power from clean renewable sources. All states in the region should follow their lead, adopt similar policies, and strengthen their existing policies. In addition, all states in the region should work toward adoption of a strong regional cap on power-sector carbon dioxide emissions.

• States and the region should commit to achieving the maximum possible reductions in energy use through energy efficiency and conservation programs. Updated commercial and residential building codes, improved efficiency standards for appliances, and expanded funding of energy efficiency programs can produce emission reductions far beyond those currently called for at the regional level while, in many cases, saving money for consumers and businesses.

• The region must develop the analytical, planning and tracking tools states will need to further reduce global warming emissions. States that have not completed adequate Climate Change Action Plans should commit to doing so within the coming year. Global warming inventories for each state must be revised to reflect more recent trends in emissions. And the region and states should begin establishing mandatory programs for the reporting of carbon dioxide emissions.

• The region should establish a timeline for meeting the long-term global warming emissions reduction goal of 75 to 85 percent and ensure that global warming plans assist any displaced workers in making a successful transition to new employment.

New England’s governors deserve credit for committing to reducing the region’s contribution to global warming. Actions taken over the last two years have helped lay the groundwork for the region to achieve those goals. Now it is time for the states—working together when appropriate—to implement the policies needed to reduce the threat of global warming.